Imperial College report on premature reopening under vaccination [pdf]
via John McClean: Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report on premature reopening under different vaccination strategies in the UK. They find significant risk of a large 3rd wave of infections: ‘For all gradual easing of NPI scenarios explored, unless vaccination is rapidly ramped up to 3 million doses a week, gradual lifting of NPIs from 1st March to 1st July will lead to a third wave of hospitalisations which will exceed our indicative threshold of 25,000 beds national hospital capacity.’
(tags: uk covid-19 vaccination imperial-college lockdowns epidemiology models)