Justin's Linklog Posts

Long-term effects of COVID-19 [pdf]

Official slides from the WHO. Here's a terrifying finding: "40% of people recovering from SARS [the first one in 2003] still had chronic fatigue symptoms 3.5 years after being diagnosed"

(tags: covid-19 chronic-fatigue fatigue long-covid who sars)

COVID-19 IFR is estimated at 0.97%

Florian Krammer on Twitter: "Our NYC serosurvey paper is now out in Nature: if extrapolated to the NYC population we found [more than] 1.7 million infected and IFR at 0.97" That's high! Nearly 1 in 100.

(tags: ifr covid-19 florian-krammer mortality deaths pandemics)

Fault in NHS Covid app meant thousands at risk did not quarantine

Somebody, somewhere, will have died needlessly due to this bug.

The root of the error, the Guardian has learned, was a decision to incorporate a measure of “infectiousness” into the app’s code. While the app was undergoing testing in the Isle of Wight, it used a simple metric that recommended isolation for anyone who had been in contact – closer than 2 metres – with a potentially infectious person for 15 minutes or more in a single day. But shortly before the app was launched nationally, it was updated to account for the fact that people are most infectious shortly after their symptoms show. The maths was changed so that people outside that period of peak infectiousness counted for just two-fifths of the risk. Since that meant the overall score was likely to be lower, the intention was to reduce the risk threshold correspondingly to ensure that someone of maximum infectiousness would need just three minutes of contact before they triggered an alert. But that change never happened, and as a result, users were only told to isolate if they had spent 15 minutes close to a very infectious person, or nearly 40 minutes near someone who was pre-symptomatic but still thought to be shedding the virus. The error was only discovered when a new version of the contact-tracing app, which can better account for exposures at mid-range (over a metre away) was created. The unfeasibly high risk score also explained another problem plaguing the app: “ghost notifications” warning users that they may have been exposed to someone with Covid, but which never resulted in advice to isolate. The app’s initial advice to users was that these notifications could be safely ignored, since they reflected a contact below the risk threshold; now that the NHS risk threshold is known to have been artificially low, one insider said, it is likely that the vast majority of those ghost notifications should in fact have been advice to self-isolate.

(tags: bluetooth nhs bugs failure ble covid-19 uk)

I Lived Through Collapse. America Is Already There. | by Indi Samarajiva

In the last three months America has lost more people than Sri Lanka lost in 30 years of civil war. If this isn’t collapse, then the word has no meaning. You probably still think of Sri Lanka as a shithole, though the war ended over a decade ago and we’re (relatively) fine. Then what does that make you? America has fallen. You need to look up, at the people you’re used to looking down on. We’re trying to tell you something. I have lived through collapse and you’re already there. Until you understand this, you only have further to fall.

(tags: collapse usa politics columbo sri-lanka history civil-war)

The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

'Study of effect of imposing and lifting COVID-19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).'

(tags: covid-19 modelling epidemiology pandemics npis schools)

Introducing Amazon SNS FIFO – First-In-First-Out Pub/Sub Messaging

Pub/Sub messaging with strong ordering and deduping. Great stuff from AWS

(tags: aws sns fifo deduping queues pub-sub architecture)

COVID-19 risk calculator

Given the prevalence in your location, and various attributes about your risk level and who will be in the area with you and for how long, this computes a comparative risk level for any given activity.

(tags: covid-19 risk infection calculators tools)

One in 20 people likely to suffer from ‘Long COVID’

Overall, the team found that while most people with COVID-19 reported being back to normal in 11 days or less, around one in seven (13.3%, 558 users) had symptoms lasting for at least 4 weeks, with around one in 20 (4.5%, 189 users) staying ill for 8 weeks and one in fifty (2.3%, 95 users) suffering for longer than 12 weeks.  Extrapolating out to the general UK population, which has a different age and gender makeup compared with the COVID Symptom Study app users, the team estimated that around one in seven (14.5%) of people with symptomatic COVID-19 would be ill for at least 4 weeks, one in 20 (5.1%) for 8 weeks and one in 45 (2.2%) for 12 weeks or more.  

(tags: via:valen long-covid covid-19 health)

intercom/lease

'Lease is a general DynamoDB-based lease implementation, ideal for long-lived work items, with coarse-grained leases', in Go, by the inimitable ex-Swrver Rob Clancy

(tags: golang go leases dynamodb aws locking libraries open-source distcomp)

q - Text as Data

'a command line tool that allows direct execution of SQL-like queries on CSVs/TSVs (and any other tabular text files). q treats ordinary files as database tables, and supports all SQL constructs, such as WHERE, GROUP BY, JOINs etc. It supports automatic column name and column type detection, and provides full support for multiple encodings.' Awesome!

(tags: csv database sql cli data tools unix tsv)

r/Ireland Christmas Market

The denizens of r/Ireland pipe up with their favoured sources of online gifts for Xmas

(tags: reddit ireland shopping christmas gifts shops)

WHO: US, Europe need to get better at quarantining - Business Insider

Now _this_ is a good point.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19 said during the meeting Monday that she's had lots of friends and family asking her in recent days what, exactly, quarantine is. Essentially, it's complete isolation from other people, including those you'd normally live with and breathe around, to the fullest extent possible.  "That means not going to work," Van Kerkhove said. "It means not going to the grocery store. It means not socializing with friends. It means not having people over at your home." Ideally, quarantining is a disease-fighting measure that is supported by local health programs and government support that can allow people to continue making a living and feeding their families while in quarantine, she said. 

(tags: quarantine covid-19 infection isolation pandemics public-health)

JustBuyIrish.com

looks like a good directory of Irish online shops, for Xmas

(tags: shops ireland irish web)

RangeTherapy

Muxsan are a Dutch company selling range extension kits for Nissan Leaf EVs, increasing their range from a Gen 1 Leaf's 110km to a typical 238km; 440km is the max. 'The extension pack consists of many Lithium-ion cells [NMC], which are of the highest quality, bound by aluminum casing into modules and each module comes with a German built Battery Management System [BMS].'

(tags: nissan cars leaf driving evs muxsan batteries hacking)

refurbed™ – Like New, Only Better

Looks like a decent place to buy refurbished electronics with a warranty -- reviews seem good online

(tags: toget electronics gadgets phones refurbished)

Click for home: The best Irish websites for online shoppers

decent list of Irish online shops, to avoid Amazon

(tags: shopping presents gifts ireland local)

The top 100 BBCMicroBot tweets

these are _amazing_. Huge respect to all the contributors who wrote these great little demos-in-a-tweet

(tags: demoscene demos bbc bbc-micro coding)

How Brain Fog Plagues Covid-19 Survivors - The New York Times

“It scares me to think I’m working,” Ms. Mizelle, 53, said. “I feel like I have dementia.” It’s becoming known as Covid brain fog: troubling cognitive symptoms that can include memory loss, confusion, difficulty focusing, dizziness and grasping for everyday words. Increasingly, Covid survivors say brain fog is impairing their ability to work and function normally. “There are thousands of people who have that,” said Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious disease at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago, who has already seen hundreds of survivors at a post-Covid clinic he leads. “The impact on the work force that’s affected is going to be significant. Scientists aren’t sure what causes brain fog, which varies widely and affects even people who became only mildly physically ill from Covid-19 and had no previous medical conditions. Leading theories are that it arises when the body’s immune response to the virus doesn’t shut down or from inflammation in blood vessels leading to the brain. Confusion, delirium and other types of altered mental function, called encephalopathy, have occurred during hospitalization for Covid-19 respiratory problems, and a study found such patients needed longer hospitalizations, had higher mortality rates and often couldn’t manage daily activities right after hospitalization. But research on long-lasting brain fog is just beginning. A French report in August on 120 patients who had been hospitalized found that 34 percent had memory loss and 27 percent had concentration problems months later.

(tags: brain-fog covid-19 sequelae inflammation side-effects)

COVID-19 IRELAND: IRISH FOOD DELIVERY SERVICES [MEGAPOST]

An extremely extensive, and up to date, list of food delivery services in Ireland at the mo

(tags: food eating gastronomy ireland delivery shopping yum)

Twitter Nazi methodology

how fascists on Twitter pick out targets -- "Screamers" and "soldiers"

(tags: screamers soldiers nazis twitter social-media harassment)

Data from Scotland on COVID-19 transmission

from Adam Kucharski: 'Data from Scotland on reported activities and venues people visited prior to developing symptoms/testing positive. (Note this necessarily doesn't imply they were infected in these places, just where infected people have recently been).' "Hospitality" - ie pubs and restaurants - feature in around 22% of infections.

(tags: pubs restaurants health covid-19 via:adam-kucharski scotland infection)

‘It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash | Science | AAAS

THE SWEDISH EXPERIMENT is coming to an end, as its policies fall in line with those of its neighbors. FoHM [the country’s public health authority, the Folkhälsomyndigheten] officials are “quietly changing their approach,” Einhorn says. [....] FoHM “should have listened more carefully to the scientific community both inside and outside the country,” Hansson says. Still, he predicts the rifts will eventually heal. “I am sure we will continue to argue, but I don’t see permanent damage,” he says. “We’ll move on. We’ll go back to complaining about grants.” But Ewing worries the fight has left permanent scars. He says at least three more members of the Vetenskapsforum are considering leaving Sweden, as Brusselaers did. And even if it turns out that the country has built up enough immunity to evade a new wave of disease, he says, the price has been too high. “I worry that countries around the world are going to say, ‘We can try what Sweden did.’ But we have killed too many people already.”

(tags: sweden covid-19 science herd-immunity)

Face shields are terrible at protecting against aerosols

'Preprint on masks and neck gaiters for source control on manikin [sic] by experienced group @NIOSH : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.05.20207241v1 N95 blocked 99% of aerosols, surgical mask 59%, 3-ply cloth mask 51%, neck gaiter 47% (1 layer) and 60% (2 layer), face shield 2%' 2% is just shite.

(tags: aerosols infection transmission covid-19 droplets airborne papers linsey-marr)

FactCheck: Many of the claims made about Covid-19 in a leaflet sent to Dublin households are false or misleading

Nicky Ryan is a saint.

(tags: debunking fact-checks aci ireland propaganda covid-19 conspiracy-theories journal)

Steps for Reducing COVID Transmission - Google Slides

Very solid slide deck from a group of aerosols scientists, regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, including the evidence for aerosols, beyond droplets

(tags: aerosols droplets covid-19 sars-cov-2 presentations airborne)

Good thread on the COVID-19 situation in Israel

Eran Segal on Twitter: "Israel: What went wrong? How did we come to lead the COVID-19 cases chart? What caused the 2nd wave, why was it so bad, and is the lockdown working? A thread on Israel, the first country to impose a second lockdown, with lots of (don’t do) lessons to teach the world."

(tags: covid-19 israel pandemics lockdown)

How contact tracing is being managed in Ireland for COVID-19

Dr Marie Casey on Twitter: "There is a fatal lack of understanding in how contact tracing is being managed in this pandemic. So I will explain." - Solid, educational thread

(tags: twitter contact-tracing public-health pandemics covid-19)

Marc Bevand's cases-vs-deaths graph for Florida

"deaths can lag up to 1 month after cases" -- clear dataviz. Going to be sadly very relevant in Ireland in about a month's time

(tags: ireland covid-19 pandemic via:firefoxx66)

Timeline of COVID -19 and Vietnam policy actions at a glance

Vietnam’s policy actions regarding COVID -19 are recapped in a timeline together with the outbreak’s movement and in context with other Asian countries from the start of 2020 to early of August 2020. Quick and decisive actions including touch control on travelling, intensive quarantine for overseas arrivals and suspected cases, massive testing and aggressive contract tracing, sealing off virus hot-spots and timely communication from very early on are considered to have contributed to Vietnam’s performance given its vulnerable position to China, a population of 100 million people and a comparatively under-developed healthcare system.

(tags: vietnam lockdown pandemics covid-19 public-health)

Dr Zoë Hyde's latest Twitter thread on kids and COVID-19

With an Aussie perspective -- Dr. Hyde works in Perth. 'Summary: further evidence children & adults are equally susceptible & equally likely to transmit; school clusters are increasing; precautions needed in schools.'

(tags: schools education covid-19 transmission)

Selling Our Genes: Government inaction allowing private sector to take control of our DNA

Genuity Science, the main company involved in DNA sequencing in Ireland, has at least 25 links to facilities around Ireland. These include funding and collaborations with major hospitals, universities, research facilities and charities. A collaboration agreement signed between Genuity Science and UCD is “restrictive”, according to an academic expert, though Genuity Science Ireland disagree with this assessment. We have the full details in this breakout article. Hospital clinicians have become “agents of a company” due to the nature of agreements in place, according to experts. Researchers are making “the best of the situation” in Ireland by working with the private sector but most would prefer a public system due to data access concerns. Lack of Government policy and adequate regulation means that private companies have no limit on how long they have exclusive access to the data they collect from Irish patients. Researchers and patient representatives are concerned about a potential erosion of trust in genetics research in Ireland.

(tags: genomics genuity genetics ucd gmi ireland data-privacy data-protection research)

WebPlotDigitizer

Extract data from plots, images, and maps:

It is often necessary to reverse engineer images of data visualizations to extract the underlying numerical data. WebPlotDigitizer is a semi-automated tool that makes this process extremely easy: Works with a wide variety of charts (XY, bar, polar, ternary, maps etc.) Automatic extraction algorithms make it easy to extract a large number of data points Free to use, opensource and cross-platform (web and desktop) Used in hundreds of published works by thousands of users Also useful for measuring distances or angles between various features

(tags: data-extraction scraping tools data charts)

'Only aerosol transmission can explain' the Skagit Choir transmission incident

Jose-Luis Jimenez on Twitter: The "Skagit Choir" incident of mass spreading of COVID-19 indicates aerosol transmission: 'Only aerosol transmission can explain how 1 person infected 52, including people who were 13 meters behind the index case.'

(tags: aerosols covid-19 sars-cov-2 transmission infection air)

inside the LAPD/LASD usage of Palantir

Much of the LAPD data consists of the names of people arrested for, convicted of, or even suspected of committing crimes, but that’s just where it starts. Palantir also ingests the bycatch of daily law enforcement activity. Maybe a police officer was told a person knew a suspected gang member. Maybe an officer spoke to a person who lived near a crime “hot spot,” or was in the area when a crime happened. Maybe a police officer simply had a hunch. The context is immaterial. Once the LAPD adds a name to Palantir’s database, that person becomes a data point in a massive police surveillance system. [...] At great taxpayer expense, and without public oversight or regulation, Palantir helped the LAPD construct a vast database that indiscriminately lists the names, addresses, phone numbers, license plates, friendships, romances, jobs of Angelenos — the guilty, innocent, and those in between.

(tags: palantir databases privacy law lapd lasd los-angeles surveillance big-brother police crime gangs)

Everything you wanted to know about the Hydrogen economy but were too busy to research

Informative Twitter thread: 'International hydrogen markets could be a thing, but don’t bet on hydrogen shipping'; 'H2 future looks good regardless'; and 'distributed plants could satisfy local industry and power markets while relieving electrical grid bottlenecks. The benefits are more likely to remain local rather than exported. So important for a just transition.' (via Forge The Future)

(tags: h2 hydrogen green climate-change future eu europe twitter via:ftf)

AWS CRT HTTP Client in the AWS SDK for Java 2.x

Interesting -- a new, high-performance, high-concurrency HTTP/1.1 client library in the AWS SDK, outperforming other Java HTTP client libs

(tags: java libraries aws http http-1.1 clients)

Covid: The libertarian population immunity strategy is wrong-headed & dangerous

+1 to this --

As cases of covid in the UK surge once again, the debate has restarted about whether to suppress covid until a vaccine becomes available, or whether to pursue a deliberate strategy of achieving population immunity without a vaccine. The assumption is that vulnerable populations can be protected while the rest of the population, who are at low risk of hospitalisation and death, can be safely encouraged to live life normally and be exposed to the virus without a vaccine. Some even advocate that younger people, because they are at lower risk, should be the first to actively seek infection. "Not only is it a good thing for young people to go out there and become immune," one commentator said, "but that is almost their duty". It is this deliberate strategy which I find so troubling, for six reasons. [....]

(tags: uk politics covid-19 herd-immunity immunity risk pandemics)

Florian Krammer on the current SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates

amazing writeup of the current state of the vaccine candidates

(tags: florian-krammer vaccines sars-cov-2 covid-19 viruses)

The fake bridges on Euro banknotes are no longer fake

This is glorious:

When the euro bank notes were designed, they used European-style bridges which were *non-existing*, not to have to choose between countries. The Dutch town of Spijkenisse claimed them all for the Netherlands by building them on a waterway.

(tags: banknotes euros currency bridges netherlands holland spijkenisse)

Jane Ruffino on Sweden's COVID-19 strategy

tl;dr: 'I totally get why people want to believe Sweden figured out a way to do it without suffering, but we didn’t.'

(tags: sweden covid-19 threads twitter jane-ruffino lockdown)

Quiddle

Susie Dent @susie_dent: "I feel it's the day for a reminder of the 18th-century verb 'quiddle': to attend to trivial matters as a way of avoiding the important ones."

(tags: quiddle quiddling prevarication delay words 18th-century language funny)

Prio

'Prio allows a set of servers to compute aggregate statistics over client-provided data while maintaining client privacy, defending against client misbehavior, and performing nearly as well as data-collection platforms that exhibit neither of these security properties.' Aggregation operations include: integer sum and mean; variance and std dev; boolean OR/AND; min/max; sets; frequency count and percentiles/quantiles.

(tags: nizk zero-knowledge snark prio crypto privacy data-privacy statistics quantiles percentiles aggregation)

Feh/nocache

minimize filesystem caching effects:

The nocache tool tries to minimize the effect an application has on the Linux file system cache. This is done by intercepting the open and close system calls and calling posix_fadvise() with the POSIX_FADV_DONTNEED parameter. Because the library remembers which pages (ie., 4K-blocks of the file) were already in file system cache when the file was opened, these will not be marked as "don't need", because other applications might need that, although they are not actively used (think: hot standby).

(tags: cache linux memory performance filesystems backup k8s unix fadvise)

Now 11 reported SARS-CoV-2 reinfections

4 cases were more serious the second time around

(tags: reinfections sars-cov-2 covid-19)

Sweden has the smallest average household size in Europe

This is an interesting factor regarding COVID-19 transmission -- the majority of Swedish households have a single occupant, unlike everywhere else in Europe (twice the rate of Ireland, for instance).

(tags: covid-19 sweden households europe statistics eu housing)

Raspberry Pi USB Boot - UASP, TRIM, and performance

In the past few weeks, I reviewed USB drive performance on the Raspberry Pi 4, and the importance of UASP support for USB drive performance. Both posts generated great discussion, and there were three things I wanted to cover in this follow-up, namely: Which drives support UASP; Real-world performance benchmarks; TRIM support.

(tags: raspberry-pi optimization linux trim ssd filesystems usb)

Brand New Retro: Survival in a Nuclear War

Brian dug up an old nuclear-war survival pamphlet from the Irish Government, published circa 1965

(tags: 1960s nuclear-war history ireland ephemera civil-defence)

Coronavirus Pandemic Data Explorer - Our World in Data

Cumulative deaths per 100k, Finland/Sweden/Denmark/Norway. Bookmarking for the inevitable discussions with COVID deniers (thanks Soren!)

(tags: covid-19 via:soren graphs charts sweden)

Monoclonal antibodies

Informative thread from Michael Mina - 'Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been quietly built and tested for months now. IMO mAbs have some of the best chances of offering powerful treatments for COVID-19'

(tags: twitter threads mabs monoclonal-antibodies immunity covid-19)

Andrew Flood on Michael Levitt

Levitt's output is being quoted by COVID contrarians in Ireland -- this thread is a good collection of examples of him being thoroughly wrong in his previous predictions

(tags: michael-levitt covid-19 covidiots twitter andrew-flood science)

Political Compass of Rural Ireland : ireland

lols

(tags: politics ireland country rural funny reddit)

The Plot Against George Soros

'Anti-Soros material is a globalized, freely available, and adaptable open-source weapon. Birnbaum said it was the common denominator of the nationalist movement.'

(tags: politics hungary george-soros lies antisemitism propaganda misinformation)

Rolling the COVID Dice in Ireland

On the Probability of SARS-CoV2 Infection in Ireland & the Benefits of Mitigation: 'In Ireland today, we have a certain chance of becoming infected with the coronavirus over the course of the next week, unless we take precautions. We can roll this many sided dice once a week for 100 weeks, and hope that our number doesn’t ever come up, or we can take a few simple precautions and only roll the dice one time. That’s the difference wearing a mask, keeping our distance, and behaving sensibly makes. That’s the choice most of us can make to keep everyone safe. I think it’s a simple choice.'

(tags: covid-19 barry-smyth probability safety infection)

gambiarra - Google Search

this is incredible -- the word roughly translates as "improvised fixes", "hacks" or "McGyverism", that kind of thing. fantastic Image Search

(tags: images gambiarra fixes thereifixedit mcgyver hacks kludges funny brazil)

Cillian De Gascun on Twitter: "A short thread on PCR #SARSCoV2"

Decent thread on Irish RT-PCR COVID-19 testing. tl;dr: Ct levels are not reliable in our system, and cannot be used to quantify viral load reliably

(tags: ireland covid-19 testing ct-levels viral-load viruses cillian-de-gascun twitter)

Protection from What?

Keith Dawson summarises a recent discussion on TWiV regarding COVID-19, the current batch of vaccines under development, and sterilising vs. protective immunity. it's not great news

(tags: immunity immune-system twiv covid-19 alan-dove vaccines)

Benchspace PPE Project Report

report from Benchspace on their open source PPE project during March and April. it's great stuff. 50,000 face shields printed!

(tags: face-shields covid-19 volunteers open-source 3d-printing ppe benchspace)

America Is Trapped in a Pandemic Spiral - The Atlantic

'Many Americans trusted intuition to help guide them through this disaster. They grabbed onto whatever solution was most prominent in the moment, and bounced from one (often false) hope to the next. They saw the actions that individual people were taking, and blamed and shamed their neighbors. They lapsed into magical thinking, and believed that the world would return to normal within months. Following these impulses was simpler than navigating a web of solutions, staring down broken systems, and accepting that the pandemic would rage for at least a year. These conceptual errors were not egregious lies or conspiracy theories, but they were still dangerous. They manifested again and again, distorting the debate around whether to stay at home, wear masks, or open colleges. They prevented citizens from grasping the scope of the crisis and pushed leaders toward bad policies. And instead of overriding misleading intuitions with calm and considered communication, those leaders intensified them. The country is now trapped in an intuition nightmare: Like the spiraling ants, Americans are walled in by their own unhelpful instincts, which lead them round and round in self-destructive circles.'

(tags: covid-19 america pandemics society failure ed-yong)

FactFind: No, it's not correct to say just 100 people have died from Covid-19 in Ireland

The Journal's fact checking team are knocking it out of the park once again -- great debunking of Ben Gilroy's latest viral claims regarding "pre-existing conditions" and COVID-19

(tags: covid-19 medicine ben-gilroy conspiracies qanon the-journal fact-checking debunking)

QAnon is a Nazi Cult, Rebranded

A secret cabal is taking over the world. They kidnap children, slaughter, and eat them to gain power from their blood. They control high positions in government, banks, international finance, the news media, and the church. They want to disarm the police. They promote homosexuality and pedophilia. They plan to mongrelize the white race so it will lose its essential power. Does this conspiracy theory sound familiar? It is. The same narrative has been repackaged by QAnon. [...] The plot, described above, was the conspiracy “revealed” in the most influential anti-Jewish pamphlet of all time. It was called The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. It was written by Russian anti-Jewish propagandists around 1902.

(tags: qanon politics conspiracy-theories history nazism nazis antisemitism)

illustration of how a rise in SARS-CoV-2 positivity in younger groups can soon become a rise in older groups

via Vincent Glad, on Twitter: the positivity rate stratified by age, in the Marseilles region

(tags: testing covid-19 age epidemiology dataviz statistics marseilles france)

The timing of COVID-19 transmission

new preprint on medRxiv:

We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

(tags: covid-19 transmission infection epidemiology)

AVIF has landed

the latest hot new image format -- pretty impressive compression numbers vs quality thresholds here

(tags: images web avif webp jpeg compression formats)

[MA] Post-it notes left in apartment. : legaladvice

Classic Reddit thread. Guy finds mysterious post-it notes around his apartment, suspects his landlord is breaking in and leaving them. I won't spoil it, but it's quite a twist ending...

(tags: reddit stories legaladvice apartments landlords post-its)

Starbucks Cafe’s Covid Outbreak Spared Employees Who Wore Masks - Bloomberg

This was pretty striking: 'A person sitting under an air conditioner infected 27 others with coronavirus at a Starbucks cafe in South Korea, but none of the employees, who were wearing masks, got the virus.' Another great case writeup from South Korea (Via Andrew Flood)

(tags: via:andrewflood covid-19 korea ventilation air-conditioning aircon masks transmission)

_COVID-19: Interim Public Health guidance for the management of COVID-19 outbreaks_ [pdf]

The current guidance doc for outbreak management in Ireland

(tags: covid-19 outbreaks public-health pandemics hpsc hse)

Proactive screening for COVID-19 is individually costly

Thread from Professor Carl T. Bergstrom:

[...] proactive testing carries individual costs: those associated with purchasing the tests, time costs of taking them, and serious social and economic costs if one tests positive and has to self-isolate for upward of a week. So, we have an intervention that is costly to you but beneficial to others. We need to think about what the incentives are for people to (1) decide to take a daily test before the results are known and (2) follow through appropriately if a test comes up positive.

(tags: testing covid-19 screening costs economics incentives)

How To Grow Trees

A complete guide via the Native Woodland Trust for planting trees in your garden, hedge, etc.

(tags: gardening woods woodlands trees planting)

Good thread on the current state of play re COVID-19 in Ireland and the rest of Europe

Ewan Birney on Twitter: "Like I suspect a number of scientists I've been quizzed by a variety of friends and family on COVID, and its gone up recently because (a) school is back and so people can feel change around them and (b) there is a change in stats in across countries in Europe."

(tags: twitter threads covid-19 ireland uk europe)

Darmok and Jalad at Tanagra, in memes

large number of people in a theatre, applauding

(tags: memes gifs reaction-gifs funny darmok-and-jalad sttng star-trek)

Keith Dawson on This Week in Virology

a paean to my favourite podcast

(tags: podcasts twiv virology covid-19 science medicine)

Death, sex, superstition and fear: the hawthorn tree in Ireland

These trees that grew of their own accord, unplanted by human hands, are those most regarded with fear and superstition. These are thought of as faery trees, associated with those unseen beings from the other world.  They are believed to mark the places where the faeries, after dark, would assemble and play sweet ethereal music, ready to abduct any beautiful human who took their fancy. Faeries could potentially destroy the crops, livestock, health, fortune or luck of anyone they took a dislike to, or anyone who had somehow wronged them. Thus, anything associated with faery activity in Ireland was traditionally avoided by the people who used many rituals to appease them.

(tags: hawthorn trees superstition fairies sidhe history ireland folklore)

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children - A prospective multicentre cohort study. | medRxiv

via DrZoeHyde: 'Important pre-print study (interpret cautiously) of 992 UK children showing 6.9% had #SARSCoV2 antibodies, suggesting they are at similar risk of infection as adults, & that young and older children are similarly susceptible. 50% were asymptomatic.' 'Half of the children (50%) who had antibodies against #SARSCoV2 were asymptomatic (although this may be subject to recall bias). The most common symptoms were fever (31%), gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhoea and vomiting (19%), and headache (18%). Only 38% of children who tested positive had fever, cough, or changes in smell or taste. Therefore, the majority of children did not meet criteria for #COVID19 testing in the UK. Current testing strategies [in the UK] will fail to diagnose most cases in children.'

(tags: covid-19 symptoms kids schools sars-cov-2 studies preprints papers uk testing)

Pasco’s sheriff created a futuristic program to stop crime before it happens. It monitors and harasses families. | Investigations | Tampa Bay Times

'This is one of the most horrifying stories I've ever read about policing: Because of a flawed algorithm, cops showed up 21 TIMES in 5 months to a 15 year-olds house. He was not accused of any crime.'

(tags: civil-rights police algorithms policing automation florida us-politics)

Community Outbreak Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Among Bus Riders in Eastern China | Global Health | JAMA Internal Medicine | JAMA Network

One person on a bus infected 23 others, probably through the air during a 100-minute trip. A/C was on with recirculation. Infected people were randomly scattered throughout the bus, not just near the index case.

(tags: covid-19 aerosols airborne transmission diseases buses public-transport travel sars-cov-2)

Gerät 32620: the machine that powered numerous number stations

Fascinating details of the hardware behind "number stations", the mysterious radio stations broadcasting streams of numbers in a monotone. One example of their use is the story of Gabriele Gast: 'After agreeing to help [the Stasi], Gast very soon found herself sent on an intensive spycraft course, including hands-on training with the latest in covert communications equipment. She was given a Stasi code name, "Gisela", which came with a false passport and a new handbag, incorporating a well concealed secret compartment. Back home in Aachen, every Tuesday evening at the same time she tuned into a shortwave radio station from East Germany and carefully wrote down a long line of numbers, read out in a monotone, without further elaboration, by a "radio presenter". When she decrypted the messages from Schmidt she found some were instructions while others were simply encouraging love messages.'

(tags: spies number-stations 1980s history ussr hardware encryption gabriele-gast germany)

FAQs on Protecting Yourself from Aerosol Transmission of COVID-19

This is pretty extensive

(tags: faqs covid-19 aerosols transmission)

Keeping CALM: When Distributed Consistency Is Easy | September 2020 | Communications of the ACM

'Consistency As Logical Monotonicity (CALM): A problem has a consistent, coordination-free distributed implementation if and only if it is monotonic.'

(tags: calm computer-science consistency distributed-systems bloom distcomp)

Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19? | The BMJ

Key messages: Current rules on safe physical distancing are based on outdated science Distribution of viral particles is affected by numerous factors, including air flow Evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 may travel more than 2 m through activities such as coughing and shouting Rules on distancing should reflect the multiple factors that affect risk, including ventilation, occupancy, and exposure time

(tags: epidemiology coronavirus covid-19 papers bmj social-distancing physical-distancing 2-metres aerosols)

Interchange fee

TIL about credit card "interchange fees" -- an additional fee levied by credit card companies and banks, roughly 3%, mainly in the US (the EU regulations cap it at 0.3%). 'Imagine a consumer making a $100 purchase with a credit card. For that $100 item, the retailer would get approximately $98. The remaining $2, known as the merchant discount[13] and fees, gets divided up.'

(tags: fees credit-cards interchange-fees us money)

How I helped fix Canada?s COVID Alert app

Nice writeup of using mitmproxy to detect unwanted accesses to a Google endpoint in an iOS app

(tags: mitmproxy mitm https ios apps reversing)

interesting results on children and COVID-19 -- high asymptomatic infection rate

'METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of children and adolescents (<21 years of age) with a SARS-CoV-2-infected close contact. We collected nasopharyngeal or nasal swabs at enrollment and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a real-time PCR assay. RESULTS: Of 382 children, 293 (77%) were SARS-CoV-2-infected. SARS-CoV-2-infected children were more likely to be Hispanic (p<0.0001), less likely to have asthma (p=0.005), and more likely to have an infected sibling contact (p=0.001) than uninfected children. Children ages 6-13 years were frequently asymptomatic (39%) and had respiratory symptoms less often than younger children (29% vs. 48%; p=0.01) or adolescents (29% vs. 60%; p<0.0001). Compared to children ages 6-13 years, adolescents more frequently reported influenza-like (61% vs. 39%; p<0.0001), gastrointestinal (27% vs. 9%; p=0.002), and sensory symptoms (42% vs. 9%; p<0.0001), and had more prolonged illnesses [median (IQR) duration: 7 (4, 12) vs. 4 (3, 8) days; p=0.01]. Despite the age-related variability in symptoms, we found no differences in nasopharyngeal viral load by age or between symptomatic and asymptomatic children.'

(tags: covid-19 sars-cov-2 papers preprints kids children)

Children in close contact with a confirmed case of Covid-19 were not contacted for nine days

'Children who came into close contact with a confirmed case of the coronavirus at a summer camp run by Ireland’s lead sporting authority were not contacted by the HSE regarding the issue for nine days, it has emerged. Sport Ireland, the State authority charged with the development of sport in Ireland, has been running childrens’ summer camps at the National Aquatic Centre campus in Blanchardstown, Dublin, where SI itself is headquartered, since June 29th. At one such camp on Friday, 14 August, a nine-year-old boy participating apparently came into close contact with a case of the virus. However, he heard nothing about the contact until nine days later on August 23 when his mother received an automated text message stating that the contact had occurred and that he had been referred for a Covid-19 test.'

(tags: sport-ireland ireland contact-tracing covid-19 kids hse children)

Irish coins designed by Percy Metcalfe

the coins used in Ireland between 1928 and 2000 (when the Euro became standard here). Beautiful, classic designs

(tags: coins history ireland numismatism design art money)

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: a living systematic review and meta-analysis | medRxiv

'The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% CI 17-25) with a prediction interval of 3-67% in 79 studies that addressed this review question.' -- note, asymptomatic throughout infection, not including presymptomatic then symptomatic. (via Andrew Flood)

(tags: via:andrewflood covid-19 asymptomatic papers preprints medicine)

Explanation of the "cases rising but deaths staying static" COVID-19 phenomenon

Featuring lots of graphs and data. This is great

(tags: twitter threads covid-19 epidemiology age ifr cfr)

Long-Haulers Are Redefining COVID-19 - The Atlantic

god, this disease is awful

(tags: long-haulers covid-19 health medicine ed-yong)

Richard Neher on Twitter: "What happens to #COVID19 when winter returns"

tl;dr: 'this suggests controlling #SARSCoV2 in the Northern Hemisphere will become a lot harder over the next six months and things might spiral out of control quickly.'

(tags: covid-19 winter medicine)

Incubation period of COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research | BMJ Open

The incubation period distribution may be modelled with a lognormal distribution with pooled mu and sigma parameters (95% CIs) of 1.63 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) and 0.50 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.55), respectively. The corresponding mean (95% CIs) was 5.8 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.7) days. It should be noted that uncertainty increases towards the tail of the distribution: the pooled parameter estimates (95% CIs) resulted in a median incubation period of 5.1 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.8) days, whereas the 95th percentile was 11.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 14.2) days.

(tags: covid-19 incubation diseases sars-cov-2 papers bmj)

How to Test Every American for COVID-19, Every Day - The Atlantic

Good write-up on Dr. Michael Mina's testing plan, using quick, cheap testing strips for daily COVID-19 testing

(tags: testing covid-19 coronavirus michael-mina reopening)

A-Levels: The Model is not the Student

Solid description of the many errors in the UK's attempt to estimate correct grades for their A-level students this year. They really made a massive mess of it. 'Ultimately, the government can only receive, at best, a D for their efforts; they tried but failed. We can only hope they will now pull themselves up, bring in the experts, and construct an algorithm worthy of an A.'

(tags: ofqual schools marks exams a-levels uk estimation statistics maths fail)

'To the four nurses in Ireland...RIP': The Covid-19 Twitter claim that made it to the national airwaves

"The story behind one of the most infamous myths of the Irish pandemic." Great analysis by The Journal here.

(tags: covid-19 paddy-cosgrave twitter misinformation tweets)

Air pollution is much worse than we thought. Climate change is far from the only problem with fossil fuels. - Vox

“Over the next 50 years, keeping to the 2°C pathway would prevent roughly 4.5 million premature deaths, about 3.5 million hospitalizations and emergency room visits, and approximately 300 million lost workdays in the US.” All that prevented death, illness, and lost productivity adds up to a lot of savings: The avoided deaths are valued at more than $37 trillion. The avoided health care spending due to reduced hospitalizations and emergency room visits exceeds $37 billion, and the increased labor productivity is valued at more than $75 billion. On average, this amounts to over $700 billion per year in benefits to the US from improved health and labor alone, far more than the cost of the energy transition. Importantly, many of the benefits can be accessed in the near term. Right now, air pollution leads to almost 250,000 premature deaths a year in the US. Within a decade, aggressive decarbonization could reduce that toll by 40 percent; over 20 years, it could save around 1.4 million American lives that would otherwise be lost to air quality. Of the potential yearly deaths prevented, Rep. Robin Kelly of Illinois remarked at the hearing, “That’s a huge number. That’s nearly three times the number of lives we lose in car accidents every year. It’s twice the number of deaths caused by opioids in the past few years. And it’s even more than the number of Americans we lose to diabetes each year.”

(tags: pollution air energy environment climate-change air-quality health decarbonization)

ESB PVC Ducting Pipe Red 50mm x 6M

decent weatherproof ducting for running cables to garden sheds etc.

(tags: ducting sheds garden home wiring cabling cables)

Excellent thread on the Ofqual justification for the UK's current approach to estimating A-level results

Some prime quotes: 'You can’t infer the correct grades at an individual level from the prior year’s distribution of grades, no matter how hard you clonk away at the abacus.' 'The data *doesn’t* allow that. ThIs puts idea that grade inflation, school level results and maintaining the distribution shape is more important than the fairness of individual results.' 'I don’t blame Ofqual, but they’re being asked to correctly estimate the size of each egg that went into an omelette, based on a different omelette.'

(tags: ofqual uk education covid-19 estimation a-levels grades schools)

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19: Cell

Good news for ongoing immunity:

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We here systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in unexposed individuals, exposed family members, and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative exposed family members and convalescent individuals with a history of asymptomatic and mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.

(tags: immunity covid-19 sars-cov-2 diseases immune-system t-cells)

How to use ventilation and air filtration to prevent the spread of coronavirus indoors

Given that COVID-19 spreads via aerosols in closed rooms like classrooms, use a CO2 monitor to check levels of ventilation; open windows; or use an air purifier.

(tags: covid-19 aerosols air air-quality co2 air-purifiers schools)

Covid 19 coronavirus: Freight investigated as possible source of community transmission - NZ Herald

Interesting theory in NZ -- their current outbreak may have been caused by surface transmission on food shipped from China:

Surfaces in a coolstore workplace are being tested to see whether international freight may have been the origin of the new cases. One of the people who has tested positive for Covid-19 is an employee at an Americold coolstore in Mt Wellington, one of four people who tested positive on Tuesday.

(tags: shipping fomites surfaces transmission covid-19 new-zealand)

Objectives for COVID-19 testing in school settings

'New ECDC guidance on testing for COVID-19 in schools says anyone who is in a "closed environment, such as a classroom, for more than 15 minutes" with a confirmed case is considered a close contact and should be tested'

(tags: ecdc covid-19 infection transmission airborne aerosols schools kids)

Yes, kids can get COVID-19 – 3 pediatricians explain what's known about coronavirus and children

So: kids catch the virus at the same rate, and transmit at the same rate as adults. They just don't tend to become symptomatic as much as adults do.

(tags: covid-19 disease kids schools transmission)

the German meat-factory COVID-19 outbreak was airborne

This is a great article:

The outbreak has been studied comprehensively by scientists using genetic sequencing techniques. The index case, who was masked, spread the disease to co-workers in a radius of more than eight metres over three days of work shifts, they found. Transmission was aided by the confined area of the plant, where air was constantly recirculated and cooled to 10 degrees. Shared apartments, bedrooms or carpools did not play a major role in the initial outbreak.

(tags: covid-19 airborne aerosols transmission meat)

The effect of school closures and reopening strategies on COVID-19 infection dynamics in the San Francisco Bay Area: a cross-sectional survey and modeling analysis | medRxiv

New preprint, modelling COVID-19 transmission in Bay Area schools.

Large-scale school closures have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the impact of school closures and re-opening on epidemic dynamics remains unclear. Methods: We simulated COVID-19 transmission dynamics using an individual-based stochastic model, incorporating social-contact data of school-aged children during shelter-in-place orders derived from Bay Area (California) household surveys. We simulated transmission under observed conditions and counterfactual intervention scenarios between March 17-June 1, and evaluated various fall 2020 K-12 reopening strategies. Findings: Between March 17-June 1, assuming children <10 were half as susceptible to infection as older children and adults, we estimated school closures averted a similar number of infections (13,842 cases; 95% CI: 6,290, 23,040) as workplace closures (15,813; 95% CI: 9,963, 22,617) and social distancing measures (7,030; 95% CI: 3,118, 11,676). School closure effects were driven by high school and middle school closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimate that fall 2020 school reopenings will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1), and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). Results are highly dependent on uncertain parameters, notably the relative susceptibility and infectiousness of children, and extent of community transmission amid re-opening. The school-based interventions needed to reduce the risk to fewer than an additional 1% of teachers infected varies by grade level. A hybrid-learning approach with halved class sizes of 10 students may be needed in high schools, while maintaining small cohorts of 20 students may be needed for elementary schools. Interpretation: Multiple in-school intervention strategies and community transmission reductions, beyond the extent achieved to date, will be necessary to avoid undue excess risk associated with school reopening. Policymakers must urgently enact policies that curb community transmission and implement within-school control measures to simultaneously address the tandem health crises posed by COVID-19 and adverse child health and development consequences of long-term school closures.

(tags: covid-19 bay-area schools kids transmission models)

Building dashboards for operational visibility | Amazon Builders' Library

Fantastic set of tips for metric dashboard construction, from John O'Shea

(tags: dashboards aws monitoring metrics alerts amazon)

Nisreen A Alwan: What exactly is mild covid-19? 

What is now becoming clear is that mortality is not the only adverse outcome of this infection and our surveillance systems must keep up and reflect that. I am advocating for precise case definitions for covid-19 morbidity that reflect the degree of severity of infection and allow us to measure moderate and long term health and wellbeing outcomes. At this stage of the pandemic, it is vital that we accurately measure and count all degrees of infection, not only in research cohorts, but as part of population-based routine surveillance systems. This includes people like me who were not tested at the time of their initial infection. Death is not the only thing to count in this pandemic, we must count lives changed. We still know very little about covid-19, but we do know that we cannot fight what we do not measure. 

(tags: covid-19 diseases fatigue symptoms medicine bmj)

Georgia camp outbreak shows rapid virus spread among children

Between 44% and 75% of the people at this summer camp were infected. '258 staff gathered for three days before the camp started with no precautions. Then on day 1 of camp someone [felt] chills. By day 6, the camp was closed.' 597 attendees, 344 tested, 260 positive.

(tags: covid-19 symptoms summer-camps pandemic disease georgia kids schools children)

"Three new important studies came out in the past week about kids & COVID-19"

Good twitter thread from Megan Ranney MD: * 'South Korea study -- Older kids most likely transmit #COVID19 to their household at rates similar to adults. And younger kids transmit the virus, too. But: no masks or distancing, since this took place at home.' * 'Chicago -- the level of the virus in kids is AT LEAST as high as the level of virus in adults. (Caveat: we don't know whether this virus is infectious. But this data matches what we know about other respiratory viruses. The next step will be studying test swabs to see if kids' virus can reproduce. I suspect it can. [...] We can't let kids ignore #SocialDistancing & #MaskUp just bc they're kids.)' * 'States with early closure of schools had reduced levels of #COVID19 compared with states with late closure, *even after* adjusting for policies like "stay-at-home". [...] Once #COVID19 infection rates start to rise, it would be foolhardy to keep schools open IRL. And we should be planning NOW for how to keep kids healthy, safe, & fed, because that moment will likely come for every state.' 'Realistically, we MUST control levels of community transmission of #COVID19 if we want kids & teachers in schools. We may be able to send kids back, but we need PPE & regular, random testing of kids & teachers, whether in elementary, middle, high school, or college.'

(tags: parenting kids schools covid-19 transmission pandemics viruses sars-cov-2)

The UX of LEGO Interface Panels – George Cave

love it

(tags: lego ux ui design funny)

RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions | PNAS

Today in "we are still fucked" news:

RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100.

(tags: rcp8.5 grim-meathook-future future climate-change co2 pnas papers models climate)

Evidence for sustained mucosal and systemic antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 antigens in COVID-19 patients | medRxiv

While the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 has been extensively studied in blood, relatively little is known about the mucosal immune response and its relationship to systemic antibody levels. Since SARS-CoV-2 initially replicates in the upper airway, the antibody response in the oral cavity is likely an important parameter that influences the course of infection. We developed enzyme linked immunosorbent assays to detect IgA and IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (full length trimer) and its receptor binding domain (RBD) in serum (n=496) and saliva (n=90) of acute and convalescent patients with laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 ranging from 3-115 days post-symptom onset (PSO), compared to negative controls. Anti-CoV-2 antibody responses were readily detected in serum and saliva, with peak IgG levels attained by 16-30 days PSO. Whereas anti-CoV-2 IgA antibodies rapidly decayed, IgG antibodies remained relatively stable up to 115 days PSO in both biofluids. Importantly, IgG responses in saliva and serum were correlated, suggesting that antibodies in the saliva may serve as a surrogate measure of systemic immunity.

(tags: covid-19 immunity disease assays antibodies sars-cov-2 papers preprints)

Harvard-UC Boulder Portable Air Cleaner Calculator for Schools

A handy calculator spreadsheet to estimate how big of a portable air cleaner would be required to protect kids/teachers/admin staff at a typical US school, based on room size, ceiling height, etc. More info: https://twitter.com/cedenolaurent/status/1290447833959747584 (Catherine Lalanne notes: "Airflows in this sheet are about half the Irish regulations, American regulations are pretty weak.")

(tags: air-cleaners filtration spreadsheets covid-19 schools kids air-quality air)

Why Aren't We Talking More About Ventilation? - The Atlantic

Zeynep wins again:

It seems baffling that despite mounting evidence of its importance, we are stuck practicing hygiene theater — constantly deep cleaning everything — while not noticing the air we breathe. How is it that six months into a respiratory pandemic, we still have so little guidance about this all-important variable, the very air we breathe?

(tags: hygiene-theatre deep-cleaning covid-19 aerosols infection air viruses transmission zeynep-tufekci)

Fordite

'also called Detroit agate, it's created when layers of automotive paint build up and harden. then it's cut and polished like other rocks.'

(tags: fordite rock agate history paint recycling cars detroit)

Apple tells app devs to use IPv6 as it's 1.4 times faster than IPv4

"when IPv6 is in use, the median connection setup is 1.4 times faster than IPv4. This is primarily due to reduced NAT usage and improved routing."

(tags: ipv6 ipv4 networking apple internet performance)

Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care

A paper in Nature, no less. SARS-CoV-2 is airborne and spreads via aerosols. My pal Cassie's colleague, Travis Longcore, writes: 'A team at the University of Nebraska collected surface and air samples from the hospital where 13 Covid-19 cases were isolated. They found evidence of virus everywhere -- high-volume air samples, low-volume personal samples worn by study personnel, room surfaces, personal items, and toilets. The results are in gene copes (from SARS-CoV-2) per microL for surfaces and per L of air for airborne. Others can do the calculations, but the personal air samples had the highest numbers, and exposure would depend on mask wearing (N95 in a hospital) and the amount of throughput (liters of air in and out of the body). What you really don't want to be doing is exercising (=high volume of air in and out) without a mask indoors with someone who is infected. Or touching anything around them. Or being inside with recirculated, unfiltered air with anyone who is infected (even if they don't know it).'

(tags: aerosols nature papers covid-19 sars-cov-2 fomites contamination transmission infection air airborne)

Comparison of viral levels in individuals with or without symptoms at time of COVID-19 testing among 32,480 residents and staff of nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Massachusetts. | medRxiv

In aggregate, the distributions of Cts for viral probes used in the qRT-PCR assay were very similar, with a statistically but not meaningfully different mean (?Ct 0.71 cycles, p = 0.006) and a similar range (12-38 cycles), between populations with and without symptoms over the entire time period, across all sub-categories examined (age, race, ethnicity, sex, resident/staff).

(tags: covid-19 preprints papers medicine viral-load rt-pcr testing)

SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding and infectiousness: a living systematic review and meta-analysis | medRxiv

Although SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in respiratory and stool can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. Thus, detection of viral RNA cannot be used to infer infectiousness. High SARS-CoV-2 titres are detectable in the first week of illness with an early peak observed at symptom onset to day 5 of illness.

(tags: papers covid-19 preprints sars-cov-2 infection rna)

Apache Arrow

Arrow combines the benefits of columnar data structures with in-memory computing. It provides the performance benefits of these modern techniques while also providing the flexibility of complex data and dynamic schemas. And it does all of this in an open source and standardized way.

(tags: via:fanf arrow data formats compression columnar-storage storage libraries)

Solving the expiring Root CA certificate-mageddon; partly at least | APNIC Blog

Ugh -- PKI expiry lifetimes were such an awful idea.

As of writing, a large number of Samsung Blu-Ray players around the world are stuck in a reboot loop. Although customers are still waiting for the official word on the issue, the suspicion is that the problem is caused by an expired certificate that stops the device firmware from booting properly, possibly because of strict digital rights management requirements that require verification and signing before full start-up of the players. As Scott points out, there are hundreds of ageing Root CAs out there, many more when you include the intermediates. Over the next few years, more will expire.

(tags: security fail pki ssl tls samsung firmware certificates expiration cas)

US Spring school closures tied to drastic decrease in Covid-19 cases, deaths in model

Their projection found that, if schools had stayed open, there could have been roughly 424 more coronavirus infections and 13 more deaths per 100,000 residents over the course of 26 days. Extrapolate that to the American population, and the country might have seen as many as 1.37 million more cases and 40,600 more deaths, explained Samir Shah, the director of hospital medicine at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center and one of the authors of the paper. “These numbers seem ridiculously high and it’s mind-boggling to think that these numbers are only … in the first several weeks,” said Shah. “That’s bonkers.” He warned, though, that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. While their statistical model attempts to pinpoint the impact of schools staying open or being closed, the method can’t actually establish any sort of causal relationship.

(tags: models modelling schools reopening covid-19 kids us)

School openings across globe suggest ways to keep coronavirus at bay, despite outbreaks | Science | AAAS

When Science looked at reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel, some encouraging patterns emerged. Together, they suggest a combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home. But opening safely, experts agree, isn’t just about the adjustments a school makes. It’s also about how much virus is circulating in the community, which affects the likelihood that students and staff will bring COVID-19 into their classrooms.

(tags: covid-19 education schools pods children kids)

AWS User Data is Being Stored, Used Outside User's Chosen Regions

Wow, this is staggeringly inappropriate usage. Bad move, Amazon!

[AWS] is using customers’ “AI content” for its own product development purposes. It also reserves the right in its small print to store this material outside the geographic regions that AWS customers have explicitly selected. It may also share this with AWS “affiliates” it says, without naming them.

(tags: via:corey-quinn aws amazon machine-learning corpora training data data-privacy data-protection)

The Scourge of Hygiene Theater - The Atlantic

On the pointless "deep clean":

To some American companies and Florida men, COVID-19 is apparently a war that will be won through antimicrobial blasting, to ensure that pathogens are banished from every square inch of America’s surface area. But what if this is all just a huge waste of time? In May, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its guidelines to clarify that while COVID-19 spreads easily among speakers and sneezers in close encounters, touching a surface “isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads.” Other scientists have reached a more forceful conclusion. “Surface transmission of COVID-19 is not justified at all by the science,” Emanuel Goldman, a microbiology professor at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, told me. He also emphasized the primacy of airborne person-to-person transmission.

(tags: covid-19 air aerosols transmission cleaning surfaces fomites hygiene)

Sputum testing provides higher rate of COVID-19 detection | EurekAlert! Science News

Li and his colleagues scoured the literature -- both preprints and published papers -- for studies that assessed at least two respiratory sampling sites using an NP swab, oropharyngeal swab or sputum. From more than 1,000 studies, they identified 11 that met their criteria. These studies included results from a total of 3,442 respiratory tract specimens. The team examined how often each collection method produced a positive result. For NP swabs, the rate was 54 percent; for oropharyngeal swabs, 43 percent; for sputum, 71 percent. The rate of viral detection was significantly higher in sputum than either oropharyngeal swabs or NP swabs. Detection rates were highest within one week of symptom onset for all three tests.

(tags: sputum covid-19 testing swabs)

COVID Dogs

Scent dog identification of samples from COVID-19 patients – a pilot study, in BMC Infectious Diseases:

The dogs were able to discriminate between samples of infected (positive) and non-infected (negative) individuals with average diagnostic sensitivity of 82.63% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 82.02–83.24%) and specificity of 96.35% (95% CI: 96.31–96.39%). During the presentation of 1012 randomised samples, the dogs achieved an overall average detection rate of 94% (±3.4%) with 157 correct indications of positive, 792 correct rejections of negative, 33 incorrect indications of negative or incorrect rejections of 30 positive sample presentations.

(tags: dogs good-dog covid-19 detection testing smell scent)

Top Scientists Just Ruled Out Best-Case Global Warming Scenarios - Bloomberg

"A group of 25 leading scientists now conclude that catastrophic warming is almost inevitable if emissions continue at their current rate."

(tags: global-warming climate-change future climate science)

20 Questions to Ask before Sending your Kids Back to School – Schools For Health

An excellent checklist.

There is no such thing as “zero risk” in anything we do, and certainly not during a pandemic. There will be some risk to students, teachers, staff, and families. As such, it is important to reduce these risks to the extent possible. Returning to school should not be “school as usual.” We prepared the following set of questions as a guide for parents, teachers and school staff who may not be sure what to ask or look for at their school. While we offer some insight into the responses you might receive, and expect, each school’s response will be different because there is no “one size fits all” plan for COVID-19.

(tags: schools teaching covid-19 health kids children)

Schools Will Eventually Need to Reopen – Schools For Health

We recognize there are immense challenges. There is no perfect plan to reopen schools safely, only “less bad” options. There is no “one size fits all” strategy that works for every school. Schools have limited budgets and staff. Compliance will be imperfect. Learning will be different. There will be disruption. Schools may need to re-close unexpectedly depending on local conditions. No one knows with certainty what the fall will bring in terms of this pandemic. Despite these challenges, the enormous individual and societal costs of keeping schools closed compels us, a team focused on Healthy Buildings and exposure and risk science, to present a range of control strategies that should be considered in discussions of school reopenings.

(tags: health schools reopening covid-19 teaching kids children)

Facebook Employee Leaks Show Betrayal By Company Leadership

Wang opted for a clip of himself speaking directly to the camera. What followed was a 24-minute clear-eyed hammering of Facebook’s leadership and decision-making over the previous year. The video was a distillation of months of internal strife, protest, and departures that followed the company’s decision to leave untouched a post from President Donald Trump that seemingly called for violence against people protesting the police killing of George Floyd. And while Wang’s message wasn’t necessarily unique, his assessment of the company’s ongoing failure to protect its users — an evaluation informed by his lengthy tenure at the company — provided one of the most stunningly pointed rebukes of Facebook to date. “We are failing,” he said, criticizing Facebook’s leaders for catering to political concerns at the expense of real-world harm. “And what's worse, we have enshrined that failure in our policies.”

(tags: activism ethics facebook work policies nazis trump)

Persistent Symptoms in Patients After Acute COVID-19 | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network

'This study found that in patients who had recovered from COVID-19, 87.4% reported persistence of at least 1 symptom, particularly fatigue and dyspnea.' Two months after 'recovery'! (via Megan Ranney MD, https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1285354398265282563)

(tags: covid-19 recovery medicine fatigue health via:meganranney)

Cheap, Frequent, Quick Testing

Keith Dawson:

Picture the widespread availability of a simple, cheap, at-home Covid test that produces quick results. Perhaps a strip of paper like a pregnancy test. Everyone in the country takes it daily. It would stop this virus in its tracks.

(tags: testing covid-19 accuracy reopening tests)

What It Will Take to Reopen Schools Safely | American Scientist

If we want school to reopen safely in this school year, here’s what it will take: community outbreak control, extensive changes to school operations to limit infection risk (and the money to support such changes), flexibility, and transparency — in that order.

(tags: schools education reopening covid-19 teaching)

amazing long twitter thread on school reopening

'Sarah Cohodes on Twitter: "Ok, so no one asked me (well @mathteacherjedi sort of did) what I thought the best plan for reopening schools was. And I haven’t said anything about this, because it’s not my direct area of expertise. 1/"'

(tags: education children kids covid-19 reopening schools teaching)

Cancel Culture and the Problem of Woke Capitalism - The Atlantic

'How Capitalism Drives Cancel Culture: Beware splashy corporate gestures when they leave existing power structures intact.'

(tags: cancel-culture cancelling capitalism society)

The inside story of how the UK government failed to develop a contact-tracing app

A classic Tory fuckup. Spoofing, over-promising, a behind-the-scenes desire to collect a database of citizen's private medical info, and hubris.

(tags: nhsx palantir bluetooth covid-19 uk tories data-privacy nhs)

Ireland donates its contact tracing app to the Linux Foundation

This is awesome. Congrats to NearForm and the HSE for making some great choices here:

Ireland’s Health Service Executive (HSE) announced today that it is donating the code for the COVID Tracker app as Open Source to the not-for-profit Linux Foundation. This will enable jurisdictions worldwide to quickly build and deploy their own contact tracing apps using a wildly successful proven base. The donated app has been named COVID Green. [...] The rapid adoption of the COVID Tracker app in Ireland exceeded all expectations. One million people installed it in the first 36 hours, and the app currently has over 1.3 million installations. That figure represents more than 30% of people in Ireland with compatible devices. The code is also being used in the app for Gibraltar and the upcoming apps for Northern Ireland, other jurisdictions in EMEA and multiple US states. NearForm continues to enable public health authorities to get a contact tracing application into production within four weeks of project start. By donating the source code to the new Linux Foundation Public Health (LFPH) project, under the Apache License 2.0, the HSE is playing an active role in helping to fight Covid-19 worldwide. Source code for the COVID Green mobile app is available now on GitHub and soon will be followed by all matching backend code. The Linux Foundation is dedicated to building sustainable ecosystems around open source projects to accelerate technology development and industry adoption. LFPH is launching with a mission to use open source software to help public health authorities (PHAs) around the world combat Covid-19 and future epidemics. One of the roles of LFPH is to serve as a forum for collaboration between PHAs, developers, technology companies and academics to ensure the implementation and dissemination of best practices, including privacy and security.

(tags: hse nearform covid-19 contact-tracing exposure-notification apps mobile open-source linux-foundation lfph)

Turkey Now Has Swarming Suicide Drones It Could Export - The Drive

Well, this is pretty scary -- swarming autonomous kamikaze drones are actively in production right now:

It seems very possible that, in addition to providing these improved Kargu [drones] to the Turkish armed forces, STM could also seek to export them, proliferating this capability further around the world. STM has already said that it has received serious inquires about the Kargu series from at least three unnamed potential foreign customers. Turkey, as a whole, has become a powerhouse of drone development and production, employing larger types to great effect in Syria and Libya just this year. This is precisely the type of weapon we have been warning about for years now. The fact that it is already here and potentially exportable should be yet another wake-up call to the level of threat low-end drones pose to U.S. and allied forces, as well as domestic infrastructure and VIPs.  "I argue all the time with my Air Force friends that the future of flight is vertical and it's unmanned," U.S. Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command, said at an event hosted by the Middle East Institute last week. "I'm not talking about large unmanned platforms, which are the size of a conventional fighter jet that we can see and deal with, as we would any other platform." "I'm talking about the one you can go out and buy at Costco right now in the United States for a thousand dollars, four quad, rotorcraft or something like that that can be launched and flown," he continued. "And with very simple modifications, it can make made into something that can drop a weapon like a hand grenade or something else."

(tags: drones war terrorism ai autonomous scary kargu kerkes turkey stm)

interesting data on COVID-19 rates among school-age kids

Twitter thread:

Highest COVID-19 rate (18.6%) for household contacts of school-aged children and lowest (5.3%) for household contacts of kids 0-9; - School closure and distancing reduced rate of COVID-19 among contacts of school aged kids. What does this mean? - I believe this further supports that we need to have low rates of community transmission before we consider opening up schools; - Per this data kids 10-19 had highest rates of contacts with COVID-19; - This is scientific data, let this lead our decision.

(tags: contact-tracing south-korea schools reopening covid-19 transmission children)