How Many Children Get Long COVID?
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an Australian epidemiologist, comes up with a fairly reassuring estimate for the current rate of long COVID among now-vaccinated and boosted kids, aged 2-15:
If we take the ONS as the most recent estimate - it’s also probably the best scientifically - we could make a reasonable argument that the rate of all Long COVID for children aged 2-15 in 2024 is unlikely to be higher than 0.6%. For severe Long COVID, the number is more like 0.06%. If we take into account the lack of a control group in the ONS study, the numbers might look more like 0.3% and 0.03%.
To put it more simply, based on the ONS data it seems likely that if 1,000 kids get COVID-19 in 2024, 30-60 of them will have a cough, headache, or fatigue that lasts longer than three months. Of those 30-60 children, 3-6 will have significant symptoms that have impacts on their daily life - maybe their headaches are so bad that they miss some days of school, or similar.
These aren’t firm numbers, and I want to make it clear that this is all very uncertain. The true incidence could be much higher, or much lower. That being said, I think based on the data we’ve currently got that Long COVID ... is now quite rare.
Tags: covid-19 kids long-covid epidemiology health